Rivian’s R2 Ramp Faces Questions as Citi Flags Production Challenges

Rivian’s upcoming R2 launch faces questions about how quickly the company can scale production, with Citi Research analysts arguing that current market expectations for the electric SUV may be difficult to achieve.

The analysts point to Rivian’s existing factory utilization and the production ramp expected at its future Georgia facility as key factors behind their concerns.

Citi questions R2 production estimates

Citi Research analysts Michael Ward and Vikram Bagri initiated coverage of Rivian with a Neutral rating, citing risks surrounding the R2 launch and the company’s ability to reach high-volume production.

Rivian currently builds the R1S, R1T, EDV and R2 at its Normal, Illinois, facility. Citi estimates the plant can produce 120,000 vehicles annually, but production has remained well below that level. The facility produced 42,417 vehicles in 2025, equivalent to about 35% of its estimated annual capacity, according to Seeking Alpha.

That utilization rate has led the analysts to question current market expectations for R2 production and deliveries. FactSet consensus estimates call for Rivian to deliver 82,000 R2 vehicles in 2027, which would imply production of more than 1,500 units per week. The consensus estimate for R2 sales in 2028 stands at 183,000 units.

Ward and Bagri said they believe both targets “are not attainable.”

The analysts expect R2 production to accelerate in 2029, but reaching Rivian’s stated 300,000-unit capacity target would require the company to more than double its current distribution locations, according to their analysis. They also believe the market would need to expand significantly to support the projected sales volume.

Georgia plant will be critical to the ramp

Citi’s analysis also points to Rivian’s Georgia plant, which is expected to begin production in late 2028. The analysts believe current consensus estimates for R2 sales in 2028 assume a faster production ramp at the Georgia facility.

Rivian’s ability to scale R2 output will therefore be closely watched as the launch progresses. Citi expects monthly production and sales figures over the next six to nine months to provide important evidence about the company’s progress.

The R2 is central to Rivian’s plans to expand beyond its existing vehicle lineup, but the Citi analysis highlights the manufacturing challenge involved in moving from relatively low factory utilization to the production volumes reflected in current market estimates.

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