Rivian (RIVN) Tops Evercore Target as Autonomy Push, but Analysts Stay Split on Upside

Rivian shares continued their strong 2025 run after Evercore ISI reaffirmed its Outperform rating on the EV maker, even as the stock climbed above the firm’s $18 price target. The call reflects growing investor enthusiasm around Rivian’s autonomy strategy and in-house technology push, though analysts remain divided on how much upside remains from current levels.

Autonomy platform and custom silicon draw cautious praise

Evercore described Rivian’s autonomous driving platform as “a step in the right direction,” while noting the company’s approach broadly aligns with existing industry expectations. The firm compared Rivian’s system to China’s emerging L2++ and L3 strategies, which rely on LiDAR, multiple sensors, and an end-to-end, AI-driven architecture rather than radical departures from current autonomy frameworks.

The most notable development, according to Evercore, is Rivian’s decision to design its own autonomous driving chips in-house and have them manufactured by TSMC. The move is expected to shave up to a year off development timelines and lower long-term costs, though it will require higher near-term R&D spending. Evercore said the custom chips are designed to deliver up to 800 trillion operations per second, with a full system capable of roughly 1,600 TOPS, well above the 300–500 TOPS typically targeted by many Level 3 competitors, according to Investing.com.

The platform is also expected to process as much as five billion megapixels per second, raising questions about whether Rivian’s computing capacity may exceed what its current sensor suite requires.

Analysts split as targets range widely

While Evercore maintained its constructive stance, it acknowledged that Rivian’s stock, which is up roughly 38% year to date, is now trading above what some models consider fair value. Analyst price targets currently span a wide range, from $10 on the low end to $25 on the high end, underscoring uncertainty around Rivian’s longer-term execution.

Recent analyst actions reflect that divide. Following Rivian’s first autonomy and AI presentation, which introduced its Rivian Autonomy Processor (RAP1), Needham raised its price target from $14 to $23 and reiterated a Buy rating, citing stronger confidence in Rivian’s role in the software-defined vehicle market. By contrast, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight, pointing to risks tied to the planned 2026 launch of the R2 and broader pressure across the EV sector. RBC Capital, meanwhile, maintained a Sector Perform rating with a $14 target, backing Rivian’s strategic pivot while remaining cautious on valuation.

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